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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.