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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."